With the 2018 NCAA March Madness Tournament officially beginning tomorrow (the First Four doesn’t really count, ya know?), you may be wondering how to keep your brackets afloat in one of the craziest seasons of college basketball yet. By following our tips, you can create a bracket that won’t completely shatter within the first day of play. These tips are organized according to seed placements and overall tournament advice, meaning the following statistics and records refer to each respective seed.
#1 SEEDS
- So, yeah, college basketball has been insane this season. If a 16 seed could pull off an upset, this year seems the most likely. But remember, never in the history of the tournament has a 16 seed upset a 1 seed.
- Don’t immediately place all your faith in a 1 seed though. In six of the last eight years, a 1 seed has lost in the second round.
- Don’t bet on the top overall seed either. The top overall seed (which is Virginia this year) has only brought home the title three times since the top seeding began in 2004.
- Only once in the history of the tournament have all four 1 seeds reached the Final Four (2008).
#2 SEEDS
- The 2 seeds aren’t always a safe bet into the second week. In twenty of the last twenty-seven years, at least one 2 seed has been bounced before the Sweet 16.
- Only once since 1996 have all 2 seeds reached the Sweet 16.
#3 SEEDS
- There has been a recent Final Four drought for 3 seeds. From 2011-2016, no 3 seed has reached the regional final. This was finally broken by Oregon in 2017.
#4 SEEDS
- Top 4 seeds aren’t completely safe from the Madness. In nine of the last ten years, at least one top 4 seed has lost in the first round.
#5 SEEDS
- A 5 seed has never won the tournament. Some have come close, but the title has always slipped away. Keep this in mind before you take your Ohio State Buckeyes all the way.
#6 SEEDS
- Even though 6 seeds aren’t quite low, they still don’t have a great record as the tournament progresses. Since 1992, no 6 seeds have reached the Final Four.
#7 SEEDS
- For each of the last seven years, there’s been at least one 7 seed or lower that’s played in the Elite 8.
#8 SEEDS
- 8/9 games are always said to be a coin flip game, but this isn’t always true. Since 1985, thirteen 8 seeds have reached the Sweet 16.
#9 SEEDS
- Don’t put your money on a 9 seed to take the title. In the history of the tournament, no 9 seed or higher has ever won the title.
#10 SEEDS
- It wouldn’t be Madness without some upsets. 76% of all upsets within the first round are done by 10, 11, or 12 seeds.
#11 SEEDS
- 11 seeds actually have a winning record since 2012, taking thirteen of the last twenty-four games – including a 3-1 winning record in last year’s tournament.
- In each of the last thirteen years, there’s been at least one upset pulled off by an 11 seed. And in seven of the last eight years, there’s been two upsets in the first round.
- Even though First Four games usually don’t mean anything, at least one First Four team has advanced to play just one more game since 2011 when the play-n format began.
#12 SEEDS
- 12 seeds aren’t doing too bad either. Since 2008, they’ve gone an impressive 19-21 against the 5 seed counterparts.
- In twenty-nine of the last thirty-three tournaments, at least one 12 seed has made it to the second round.
#13 SEEDS
- In seven of the last ten years, there’s been at least one 13 seed upset in the first round.
#14 SEEDS
- 14 seeds, while capable of some first round upsets, don’t get much further. 14 seeds (and 10, 12, 13, 15 and 16 seeds) have never reached the Final Four.
#15 SEEDS
- These are the most unlikely upsets, but there is just enough of a shred of hope to seem possible. However, our recommendation? Take the 2’s for the first game.
#16 SEEDS
- No matter how much you love your Cinderella stories, a 16 seed upset just isn’t likely. Their perfect losing record in the tournament should be enough to convince you to take the 1 seeds.
OVERALL ADVICE
- Each of the last fourteen champions have had at least twenty-five wins before they began tournament play. Judging by this statistic alone, it discounts over half the field.
- Conference tourneys do matter, at least a little bit. No team has won the tournament after losing their conference tourney opener.
- Some conferences are basketball powerhouses – the Big 10 and the West Coast are not. The Big 10 hasn’t won since Michigan State in 2000, while the West Coast hasn’t seen a title since Arizona in 1997.
- Don’t be afraid to break out the numbers. Bracketologist Ken Pomeroy and his site kenpom.com have proven the necessary statistical analysis to back up your picks. Fifteen of the last sixteen champions have ranked in the Top 20 for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and in the Top 15 for Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (both calculated on kenpom.com).
- Pay attention to recent trends. To win the tournament, your team essentially needs a six game win-streak. It matters more if they got hot late than if they had a hot start.
- In fourteen of the past fifteen years, the champion has been a 1, 2, or 3 seed. And all of those winners have been ranked within kenpom’s Top 25.
